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Anyone who’s seen the crowds in the Health Sciences Library around exam time will have a hard time believing it, but North Carolina’s health-care industry may soon be experiencing an unpleasant crunch. Experts are predicting a physician shortage for the state in the near future.
According to a report issued by the Sheps Center’s Health Professions Data System, which has performed annual reviews of the North Carolina health workforce for 27 years, the number of physicians is not growing at the same rate as the state’s population.
“We are seeing our uptake of physicians staying flat for the past four years while our population continues to grow,” said Thomas Ricketts, director of Carolina’s Southeast Regional Center for Health Workforce Studies and co-author of the report.
So, where have all the doctors gone? According to Ricketts, this is a national phenomenon. The rate of growth in the number of physicians—both general practitioners and specialists—turned out by medical schools in the United States has slowed while the population continues to grow. Institutions are not opening enough new medical schools and those that already exist have not increased enrollment.
“North Carolina has not expanded its medical student numbers for nearly 20 years,” he said.
As a result, North Carolina has to compete for physicians in a national market with a tight supply. National recruitment, especially in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, has drawn some doctors away. When state hospitals and clinics have a tough time recruiting, they also have a tough time scraping together the resources to expand and meet the health-care demands of the communities they serve.
How long before we begin to feel the crunch here in North Carolina? We already are, according to Ricketts.
There are several communities scattered throughout the state that are already in need of physicians, he said, but “this is a fairly chronic situation.” In the next few years, the health care industry will be tightening its belt as the number of vacancies slowly grows and physicians already in practice are pressured to stay that way.
There is good news, though: The number of nurse practitioners and physician assistants is steadily rising. As health care professionals, they provide many of the same services as physicians. With their help, the blow to North Carolina’s residents could be softened when and if the shortage occurs.
To order a copy of the new report titled “The North Carolina Health Professionals 2004 Data Book,” e-mail nchp@unc.edu, call 919-966-7112, or visit www.shepscenter.unc.edu/hp.
Provided by Research and Economic Development.
Editor: Neil Caudle
Writer: Margarite Nathe