A more accurate prediction of Carolina North’s impact on local traffic

In recent news reports, headlines have proclaimed that Carolina North will double traffic in its vicinity by 2025. This is simply not true. The total traffic impact projected for 2025 by the Transportation Impact Analysis consultant (VHB) is from the combination of projected ambient growth in traffic, growth from anticipated developments unrelated to Carolina North, and growth associated with Carolina North.

In future presentations to the public, we intend to make clearer the distinction between traffic impact directly related to Carolina North and the traffic generated by other, unrelated growth in the area. This straightforward comparison between baseline growth and Carolina North-related growth will enable citizens to draw their own conclusions more accurately about the impact of the new campus.

To that end, we asked our transportation consultants at Martin/Alexiou/Bryson, PLLC in Raleigh to review the data from the Traffic Impact Analysis and to prepare a chart that makes the traffic impact of Carolina North alone much clearer. Our consultants used peak hour data for certain high-traffic links of roadway in the vicinity of Carolina North. (Peak hour data are the best measure of inconvenience to motorists trying to drive to work or school during the busiest times in the morning and evening — rush hour.) This chart includes columns for the existing traffic, the traffic if Carolina North is not built (No-Build), the traffic when it is built (Build) and the traffic attributed solely to Carolina North development (CN), in the years 2015 and 2025. Here are some highlights from the chart:

By abstracting the Carolina North traffic from Table 1 and Table 2, the results show that, compared to existing traffic, Carolina North will contribute a traffic growth of 7 percent in the morning and 6 percent in the evening in 2015, and a growth of 30 percent in the morning and 29 percent in the evening in 2025.
Comparing Build with CN to the No-Build (without CN) scenarios, the incremental growth is around 5 percent in 2015 (2015 Build over 2015 No-Build), and slightly over 20 percent in 2025 (2025 Build over 2025 No-Build). The growth along MLK is even lower.

Based on this analysis, Carolina North will increase the existing traffic along Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard by around 5 percent in 2015 and by around 25 percent in 2025. The message "Carolina North will double traffic on MLK by 2025" is incorrect and should be revised to reflect the correct traffic projections of the Carolina North project.

— Jack Evans, June 3, 2009

Jack Evans is executive director of Carolina North at UNC-Chapel Hill.